Market Outlook: India-Pak tensions, inflation and economic data key triggers for next week

Mumbai, May 11 (IANS) The Indian stock market outlook for next week will be guided by several domestic and international cues such as retail inflation, quarterly results, US jobless claims data and others.

Next week, companies like SMC Global, Bajaj Electricals, JM Financial, Raymond, Tata Steel, UPL, AB Capital, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, HAL, Tata Power, and JSW Energy will release their Q4 FY2024- 25 results.

In India, inflation will be in focus with the release of CPI YoY data on May 13, providing clarity on consumer price trends and their implications for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy. Additionally, Exports YoY data on May 15 will shed light on the health of India’s external trade amid global uncertainties.

In the US, the spotlight will be on inflation and consumption metrics. On May 13, both CPI MoM (Month-on-Month) and YoY (Year-on-Year) figures will be closely watched for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Meanwhile, China will release its Money Supply M2 YoY data on May 15, a critical indicator of liquidity and credit growth that could influence monetary easing expectations.

Bajaj Broking Research said, "The week of May 13 to 16, 2025, brings a slate of crucial economic data releases across India, the United States, and China, which are likely to guide investor sentiment and central bank expectations."

Last week, the stock market ended lower due to the escalation between India and Pakistan.

The Sensex declined by nearly 1,047 points to settle at 79,454, while the Nifty slipped 338 points to close at 24,008 -- both registering a weekly loss of approximately 1.4 per cent.

Sector-wise, real estate and PSU banks were the major laggards, falling around 6.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, while the auto and media sectors bucked the trend to emerge as top gainers.

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said, "Rising tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to dominate investor sentiment in the coming week, creating a cautious undertone in Indian equity markets. Any escalation along the border or strong diplomatic developments could lead to uncertainty."

"Alongside geopolitical concerns, the ongoing Q4 corporate earnings season will continue to drive stock-specific action. Further developments on both geopolitical and corporate fronts will play a crucial role in determining the market direction," he added.